Will a woman win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards (2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick3.0%$0.03
- No97.0%$0.97
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Forecast reasoning
Only one woman, Olivia Wilde, appears among current Best Director contenders with a 1% win probability as of October 2026, while male directors dominate predictions. Historically, women have won Best Director only 3 times in 96 years of Oscar history, establishing a 3% base rate that aligns with this market's 3% probability.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a woman is announced as the winner of the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, which takes place strictly after 2026-10-22T07:30:02.416Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no woman is announced as the winner of the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, which takes place strictly after 2026-10-22T07:30:02.416Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The winner is determined by the name and gender of the individual announced as Best Director at the live 99th Academy Awards ceremony on March 14, 2027. A director is considered a woman if she publicly identifies as a woman at the time of the announcement.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC