Will Spain win Euro 2028?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick21.8%$0.22
- No78.3%$0.78
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Spain's 2026 World Cup victory and 38-game unbeaten streak make them joint favorites alongside France, but recent market data from July 2028 shows their implied probability has settled at 23%, suggesting modest regression from their 4/1 odds a year earlier as competition from France, England, and Germany intensified heading into the tournament.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Spain is officially declared the UEFA Euro 2028 champion by UEFA — i.e., Spain wins the Euro 2028 final — with the match occurring strictly after 2026-10-01T10:38:40.889Z and at or before 2028-07-10T06:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if any nation other than Spain is officially declared the UEFA Euro 2028 champion within the same window, or if Spain does not participate in or does not win the Euro 2028 final, or if the Euro 2028 final does not take place within the window. Clarifications: - The settlement window runs strictly after 2026-10-01T10:38:40.889Z and at or before 2028-07-10T06:00:00.000Z; the Euro 2028 final is scheduled for 9 July 2028 at Wembley (17:00 BST / 16:00 UTC kickoff), which falls within this window.
Jul 9, 2028, 4:00 PM UTC