Will US CPI inflation cool in November 2026 (October data)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick27.3%$0.27
- No72.8%$0.73
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Forecast reasoning
TD Securities projects October headline CPI at 0.30% month-over-month, cooling from September's 0.65%, with nowcast models estimating 0.20-0.25%. However, a government shutdown prevented October data collection, and the BLS canceled the November 10 report, making resolution impossible.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for October 2026, published strictly after 2026-10-25T23:58:59.083Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, reports a 12-month (year-over-year) change in the CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted) that is strictly lower than the 3.7% figure reported in the September 2026 release. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for October 2026, published strictly after 2026-10-25T23:58:59.083Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, reports a 12-month (year-over-year) change in the CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted) that is equal to or higher than the 3.7% figure reported in the September 2026 release. Clarifications: - "Cooling" is defined as a decrease in the 12-month not-seasonally-adjusted CPI-U percent change for October 2026 relative to the 3.7% reading reported for September 2026 in the BLS release dated October 14, 2026.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC