Will Raphinha receive a yellow card vs Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 (regular + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes19.5%$0.20
- No80.5%$0.81
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Forecast reasoning
Raphinha is confirmed to start for Barcelona in Sunday's El Clásico and leads La Liga with 12 goals, suggesting an aggressive playing style, but the evidence contains no information about his disciplinary record or yellow card tendency, leaving the 20% probability to rest primarily on base rates for the position and matchup.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Raphinha is shown at least one yellow card during regular time or stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalty shootout) of the LaLiga match Barcelona vs Real Madrid played strictly after 2026-10-24T14:50:56.702Z and at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Raphinha is not shown any yellow card during regular time or stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalty shootout) of that same match, including if Raphinha does not appear in the match at all. Clarifications: - If the match is postponed, cancelled, or not completed before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, this market is unresolvable. - A red card shown directly (without a prior yellow) does not count as a yellow card for this market; only a yellow card or the first yellow of a two-yellow dismissal qualifies.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC