Will Ethereum go down in October 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick82.5%$0.83
- No17.5%$0.18
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Ethereum has declined 9.78% through October 18, with consistent downward pressure and only 9 of 18 trading days showing gains. The remaining 13 days until month-end would need a 3.6% rally just to close flat, against a historical October average return of +4.2% that carries weak predictive power.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the ETH-USD price on Coinbase at 2026-10-31T23:00:00Z is strictly lower than the ETH-USD price on Coinbase at 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the ETH-USD price on Coinbase at 2026-10-31T23:00:00Z is equal to or higher than the ETH-USD price on Coinbase at 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Go down" is defined as a net price decrease over the measurement window: the closing price (2026-10-31T23:00:00Z) must be strictly less than the opening price (2026-09-30T22:00:00Z) for "Yes" to win. - Both price readings are the last traded price of ETH-USD on Coinbase at each respective timestamp.
Oct 31, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC