Will Tokyo be warmer than NYC on Oct 2, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick17.3%$0.17
- No82.8%$0.83
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Forecast reasoning
Tokyo averages 5°F warmer than NYC in October, but tomorrow's forecast shows Tokyo at 74°F with no NYC forecast available, creating significant uncertainty that pushes the probability down from historical patterns.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Tokyo's mean daily air temperature on October 2, 2026 UTC is strictly higher than New York City's mean daily air temperature on October 2, 2026 UTC, where both values are measured strictly after 2026-10-01T16:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-02T16:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Tokyo's mean daily air temperature on October 2, 2026 UTC is equal to or lower than New York City's mean daily air temperature on October 2, 2026 UTC, where both values are measured strictly after 2026-10-01T16:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-02T16:00:00Z. Clarifications: - Mean daily air temperature is the average of the daily maximum and minimum 2 m air temperatures (i.e., (Tmax + Tmin) / 2) reported for October 2, 2026, covering the window strictly after 2026-10-01T16:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-02T16:00:00Z. Both cities must use the same metric unit (°C or °F) for the comparison. - Tokyo is represented by Tokyo, Japan (approx. 35.68°N, 139.69°E); New York City is represented by New York City, NY, USA (approx. 40.71°N, 74.01°W).
Oct 2, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC