Will London top 20°C on Oct 1, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick69.5%$0.70
- No30.5%$0.31
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts for October 1 show London reaching 20-21°C in the afternoon, exceeding the 20°C threshold, with sunny conditions expected. Historical data shows this temperature is achievable but above the 16.6°C October average, introducing some forecast uncertainty.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the recorded daily maximum air temperature in London reaches strictly above 20°C at any point strictly after 2026-09-30T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-01T23:00:00Z, as observed at an official London weather station (e.g. Heathrow, St. James's Park, or London City Airport). - "No": Wins if the recorded daily maximum air temperature in London does not exceed 20°C at any point during the same window (strictly after 2026-09-30T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-01T23:00:00Z) at any official London weather station. Clarifications: - "Daily maximum temperature" refers to the highest air temperature (°C) recorded at an official Met Office surface weather station within Greater London over the resolution window. Hourly synoptic observations from automatic stations may be used where a single-day summary is unavailable by settlement time.
Oct 1, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC