Will the US Commerce Dept add DeepSeek to the Entity List before Mar 31, 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes6.3%$0.06
- No93.8%$0.94
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Forecast reasoning
An interagency committee approved DeepSeek for the Entity List in 2025, but Commerce has not published it as of October 2026 despite the longest gap in updates since October 2025. The Trump administration has deliberately delayed the listing to avoid escalating trade tensions with Beijing, though DHS separately barred DeepSeek from federal civilian agencies in October 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a final rule published in the Federal Register by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) adds DeepSeek (or any named DeepSeek entity) to the Entity List (Supplement No. 4 to Part 744 of the EAR), with the final rule's effective date strictly after 2026-10-20T14:58:34.791Z and at or before 2027-03-30T23:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such final rule meeting the above condition is published and effective within that window.
Mar 30, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC