Will Revolut publicly acknowledge that the current (Oct 20, 2026) downtime is due to a hack by Oct 26, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.4%$0.01
- No98.6%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Revolut attributed the October 20 outage to a Google Cloud service disruption, not a hack, and has not changed this explanation as of today. The company publicly acknowledged a separate hack on October 7 affecting 680 clients, but evidence shows no indication it will retroactively claim the current outage was also a hack within the 7-day resolution window.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Revolut publicly acknowledges, on an official channel (such as its website, official blog, status page, or verified social media accounts), strictly after 2026-10-20T09:43:18.992Z and at or before 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z, that the October 20, 2026 service disruption was caused by a hack, cyberattack, or unauthorized intrusion. - "No": Wins if no such public acknowledgement is made by Revolut on an official channel strictly after 2026-10-20T09:43:18.992Z and at or before 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A qualifying acknowledgement must explicitly attribute the October 20, 2026 downtime to a hack, cyberattack, security breach, or unauthorized access — general "service disruption" statements without a security cause do not qualify. - Official channels include Revolut's website, official blog, press releases, the Revolut status page, and verified Revolut or Revolut Support accounts on social media platforms (e.g. X/Twitter).
Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC