Will Oktoberfest 2026 in Munich have more visitors than Oktoberfest 2025 (~6.5 million)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes76.5%$0.77
- No23.5%$0.24
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Oktoberfest 2026 had 3.8 million visitors by mid-festival versus 3.5 million in 2025, suggesting a 9% pace increase that would exceed the 6.5 million baseline. Strong international bookings from India and Japan offset U.S. declines, while weekday attendance surged 18.5% from a visitor management campaign.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total official visitor count for Oktoberfest 2026 in Munich, as announced by the City of Munich or the official festival organizers at the closing press conference (covering the festival period strictly after 2026-09-30T17:25:55.022Z and at or before 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z), exceeds 6.5 million visitors. - "No": Wins if the total official visitor count for Oktoberfest 2026 in Munich, as announced by the City of Munich or the official festival organizers at the closing press conference (covering the festival period strictly after 2026-09-30T17:25:55.022Z and at or before 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z), is 6.5 million or fewer visitors. Clarifications: - The visitor count used for settlement is the total cumulative attendance figure for Oktoberfest 2026 as officially reported by the City of Munich or the festival organization (typically released at the closing press conference on or just after the final festival day). The 2025 baseline is 6.5 million visitors as confirmed by the City of Munich's official figures. - If the closing press conference falls after 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z but the festival itself ends by that date, the official figures announced at or shortly after close (covering attendance through the final festival day) are used.
Oct 4, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC