“Will NOAA's primary GOES flare list record an X1.0+ solar flare (max_xrlong ≥ 0.0001 W/m²) with peak on 13 Nov 2026 UTC?” on Delphi

Will NOAA's primary GOES flare list record an X1.0+ solar flare (max_xrlong ≥ 0.0001 W/m²) with peak on 13 Nov 2026 UTC?

WeatherForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes5.5%$0.06
No94.5%$0.95

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

NOAA's official forecast for November 13 assigns only a 5% probability of X-class flares, down from an earlier 15% estimate, reflecting gradual decay of the active region. No X-class flares have been recorded in the past week despite M-class activity, and the largest recent flare was only C-class on November 12.