Will the US unemployment rate rise in October 2026 (reported Nov 6, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick29.8%$0.30
- No70.3%$0.70
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Forecasts from October 7 and prediction markets both expect the unemployment rate to remain flat at 4.2% in October, with only a 27% probability it rises above that level. Historical data shows unemployment rarely spikes from stable levels outside recessions, supporting the low probability of a rise.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026, published on November 6, 2026 at 08:30 ET (13:30 UTC), reports a U.S. unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted, from the Current Population Survey) strictly higher than the September 2026 unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, provided the release is published strictly after 2026-10-24T03:10:23.309Z and at or before 2026-11-06T21:30:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026, published on November 6, 2026 at 08:30 ET (13:30 UTC), reports a U.S. unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted, from the Current Population Survey) equal to or lower than the September 2026 unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, provided the release is published strictly after 2026-10-24T03:10:23.309Z and at or before 2026-11-06T21:30:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The unemployment rate compared in both criteria is the seasonally adjusted headline U.S. unemployment rate as reported in the BLS Employment Situation news release for October 2026 (reference month), compared against the September 2026 figure of 4.2 percent as reported in the October 2, 2026 release. If BLS revises the September 2026 figure in the November 6 release, the revised September figure shall be used as the baseline for comparison.
Nov 6, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC