Will DeepSeek be removed from the Apple or Google app stores by end of 2026 due to the US federal order?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.1%$0.04
- No95.9%$0.96
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Forecast reasoning
The DHS order of July 2026 targets only federal civilian agencies, not commercial app stores, and as of October 20 DeepSeek remains available in US app stores with no evidence Apple or Google plan removal. Only Italy has blocked the app among major markets, suggesting regulatory action requires explicit privacy or security orders rather than procurement restrictions.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-20T14:56:52.697Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, the DeepSeek app (any version, including third-party apps powered by DeepSeek) has been formally removed or delisted from the Apple App Store, the Google Play Store, or both, as a direct result of a US federal government order, law, regulation, or other binding directive compelling that removal. - "No": Wins if, as of 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, no such removal from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store has occurred as a direct result of a US federal order within the window described above — including if any such order was issued but not yet acted upon by Apple or Google, or if the only applicable federal order (e.g., DHS FASCSA Exclusion and Removal Order #2026-01) is limited in scope to federal civilian agency IT systems and does not compel app store delisting. Clarifications: - "Removed" means the DeepSeek app (published by or on behalf of Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Co., Ltd., or any direct rebranding thereof) is no longer publicly available for download on the Apple App Store or Google Play Store in the United States, and the removal is attributable to a binding US federal directive rather than a voluntary decision by Apple, Google, or DeepSeek. - The DHS FASCSA Exclusion and Removal Order #2026-01 (docket DHS-2026-0628), which applies to federal civilian agency IT systems, does not by itself satisfy the "Yes" condition unless it is interpreted or supplemented by a directive that explicitly requires Apple or Google to delist the app.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC