Will Polymarket overtake Kalshi in trading volume by the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.8%$0.02
- No98.3%$0.98
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Kalshi held 76% of prediction market volume in mid-October 2026 versus Polymarket's 5%, with Kalshi's share growing 59% over the prior month while Polymarket declined 8%, making a reversal in 75 days extremely unlikely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Polymarket's total reported trading volume (combining Polymarket International and Polymarket US, if both operate) for the period strictly after 2026-10-06T11:26:17.855Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z exceeds Kalshi's total reported trading volume over the same period. - "No": Wins if Kalshi's total reported trading volume for the period strictly after 2026-10-06T11:26:17.855Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z equals or exceeds Polymarket's total reported trading volume (combining both Polymarket platforms) over the same period. Clarifications: - "Trading volume" means total dollar trading volume as reported by each platform or a credible aggregator, applied consistently to both platforms using the same metric and source. If Polymarket operates both a global and a US-regulated platform during this window, their volumes are combined and treated as a single Polymarket figure.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC