Will a class action lawsuit be filed against Truebit related to its January 2026 hack before 2028?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick5.0%$0.05
- No95.0%$0.95
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
No class action lawsuit has been filed as of October 2026, nine months after the $26.6 million January exploit. Truebit's decentralized protocol structure limits legal standing for such claims, and law enforcement contact was announced but no litigation emerged in public sources through mid-2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a class action lawsuit naming Truebit (or its parent entity, foundation, or key principals) as a defendant and arising from the January 2026 hack of its TRU smart contract is publicly confirmed to have been filed in a court of competent jurisdiction strictly after 2026-10-05T06:44:33.905Z and at or before 2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Confirmation requires a court filing record, a credible legal-news report, or an official court docket entry. - "No": Wins if no such class action lawsuit is credibly confirmed to have been filed within the window described above. Clarifications: - A qualifying lawsuit must be styled as a class action (i.e., brought on behalf of a putative class of plaintiffs), filed in a recognized court, and must explicitly reference the January 2026 Truebit hack as the basis for the claim. Individual lawsuits, regulatory enforcement actions, and arbitration proceedings do not qualify.
Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC