Will it snow in New York on Dec 25, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick9.8%$0.10
- No90.3%$0.90
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Forecast reasoning
Historical data shows snow on Christmas Day in New York only 11% of the time over a century. NOAA's October 2026 forecast predicts warmer-than-average temperatures and rain rather than snow on December 25, with an 8% historical model estimate for measurable snow accumulation.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one hourly observation recorded at the NWS Central Park (KNYC) station strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z includes a present-weather descriptor of snow (including light snow, snow, heavy snow, snow showers, or snow grains). - "No": Wins if no hourly observation recorded at the NWS Central Park (KNYC) station during that same interval includes any present-weather descriptor of snow. Clarifications: - The observation window is strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z (UTC). "Snow" includes any coded METAR present-weather phenomenon whose descriptor indicates falling snow (SN, RASN, SHSN, SG, FZDZSN, etc.) but excludes blowing snow (BLSN) with no concurrent falling snow, and excludes sleet (PL) or freezing rain (FZRA) alone. - The reference location is New York City, Central Park (ICAO: KNYC).
Dec 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC