Will there be a thunderstorm in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India, on Oct 22, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes53.5%$0.54
- No46.5%$0.47
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Forecast reasoning
The India Meteorological Department issued a warning on October 19 for thunderstorms and heavy rain over Kerala on October 22, supported by multiple forecasters predicting thundery conditions, though some commercial services forecast only rain or showers without thunder.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one thunderstorm (or thunder/lightning event) is officially recorded or observed at Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India, strictly after 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-10-22T18:30:00Z, as evidenced by hourly or daily weather observation records (e.g., weather condition coded as "Thunderstorm" or equivalent) for the Trivandrum International Airport (VOTV) station or a comparable official observing station serving the city. - "No": Wins if no thunderstorm event is recorded or observed at Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India during the same window (strictly after 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-10-22T18:30:00Z). Clarifications: - A thunderstorm is confirmed if the observed weather condition in any hourly or daily record for the resolution window is coded or described as "Thunderstorm", "TS", "Thunder", or an equivalent designation indicating thunder and/or lightning activity at or near Thiruvananthapuram. - The resolution window opens strictly after 2026-10-21T18:30:00Z and closes at or before 2026-10-22T18:30:00Z; observations outside this window do not count.
Oct 22, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC