Will Trump be removed from office before the 2028 US presidential election on Nov 7, 2028?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes9.5%$0.10
- No90.5%$0.91
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Markets price impeachment at 66-67% but removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote, a much higher bar; Democrats showed reluctance on impeachment even before the midterms, with party divisions dampening momentum for 2027. The 10% reflects the steep two-thirds threshold despite Democratic House control odds around 78%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Donald Trump ceases to hold the office of President of the United States for any reason — including removal following Senate conviction on impeachment, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or resignation — strictly after 2026-10-26T09:57:48.233Z and at or before 2028-11-07T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Donald Trump has not ceased to hold the office of President of the United States at any point strictly after 2026-10-26T09:57:48.233Z and at or before 2028-11-07T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Removed from office" means Trump no longer holds the presidency; the criterion is met at the moment he ceases to be President, regardless of the mechanism.
Nov 7, 2028, 5:00 AM UTC