“Will the first Census Q3 2026 retail e-commerce release (by Nov 19 22:00 UTC) report seasonally adjusted e-commerce share ≥17.5% in Table 1?” on Delphi

Will the first Census Q3 2026 retail e-commerce release (by Nov 19 22:00 UTC) report seasonally adjusted e-commerce share ≥17.5% in Table 1?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥17.5%9.3%$0.09
No, <17.5% or void90.8%$0.91

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Q2 2026 seasonally adjusted e-commerce share was 17.1%, requiring 0.4 percentage points of growth in one quarter to reach 17.5%. Historical quarterly gains averaged 0.1–0.2 percentage points; the largest recent jump was 0.3 points from Q3 to Q4 2025. The 9% probability reflects the steep climb needed within a single quarter.