Will London hit 20°C on Oct 16, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes1.3%$0.01
- No98.8%$0.99
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Forecast reasoning
All major forecasts for October 16 show London's high at 15-16°C, well below the 20°C threshold. The Met Office, AccuWeather, and multiple other sources consistently predict temperatures 4°C short of the target. October 16 historically averages 15.7°C with a record high of only 20.6°C.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the recorded daily maximum air temperature at 2 metres above ground in London, England (UK) reaches or exceeds 20°C on 2026-10-16 UTC (i.e. any hourly reading at or after 2026-10-15T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-16T23:00:00Z equals or exceeds 20°C), as reported by authoritative weather observation or reanalysis data. - "No": Wins if no hourly air temperature reading at 2 metres above ground in London, England (UK) at or after 2026-10-15T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-16T23:00:00Z reaches 20°C. Clarifications: - "London" is understood as the greater London area, using the London Heathrow (EGLL) or London City (EGLC) weather station, or the nearest equivalent grid point in a reanalysis dataset such as ERA5 or the UK Met Office observations. - Temperature readings are taken as instantaneous hourly air temperature at 2 metres above ground, in degrees Celsius. A single hour at or above 20°C is sufficient for "Yes" to win.
Oct 16, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC