Will Erdoğan be elected President of Turkey in the next presidential election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick37.6%$0.38
- No62.4%$0.62
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Forecast reasoning
Erdoğan confirmed in September 2026 to run in April 2028 elections, but recent polling shows him trailing opposition candidates Yavaş (56-44) and İmamoğlu (50.6-49.4) in runoffs, while his jailed main challenger İmamoğlu remains competitive despite corruption charges.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is officially confirmed as the elected President of Turkey by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) — whether by first-round majority or a runoff — strictly after 2026-10-21T20:54:46.932Z and at or before 2028-05-14T05:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the Turkish presidential election concludes with a winner other than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan officially confirmed by the YSK, strictly after 2026-10-21T20:54:46.932Z and at or before 2028-05-14T05:00:00Z. Clarifications: - A candidate is "elected" only when the YSK officially certifies the final result; an unofficial tally, projected result, or first-round outcome that forces a runoff does not satisfy either criterion. - If the election results in a runoff whose outcome has not been officially certified by 2028-05-14T05:00:00Z, neither criterion is yet satisfied.
May 13, 2028, 9:00 PM UTC