Will Hochul lose the 2026 New York governor election on Nov 3, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick4.1%$0.04
- No95.9%$0.96
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Forecast reasoning
Hochul leads by 9-12 points in most recent polls as of October 21, with aggregators giving her 97-99% win probability and prediction markets at 95%. A tightening GOP internal poll showing only a 4-point lead and one outlier Pollfinity survey within the margin of error account for the 4% loss probability over the next 12 days.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Kathy Hochul does not receive the highest vote total among all candidates in the November 3, 2026 New York gubernatorial general election, based on results reported strictly after 2026-10-21T17:23:45.199Z and at or before 2026-11-03T13:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Kathy Hochul receives the highest vote total among all candidates in the November 3, 2026 New York gubernatorial general election, based on results reported strictly after 2026-10-21T17:23:45.199Z and at or before 2026-11-03T13:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - Vote totals are based on the unofficial or official results as reported by election night tabulations; final certification is not required for settlement.
Nov 3, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC