Will JD Vance win the 2028 US presidential election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick23.3%$0.23
- No76.8%$0.77
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Vance leads Republican primary polling at 38-39% but trails Harris in general election matchups (48% to 44%) and faces a net approval rating of minus 18 points with 47% unfavorable views. Prediction markets have shifted toward Rubio, who now leads recent straw polls despite Vance's primary strength.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if JD Vance is declared the winner of the 2028 US presidential election — confirmed as having secured a majority of Electoral College votes — by a consensus of major national news outlets strictly after 2026-10-06T14:59:35.155Z and at or before 2028-11-09T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-06T14:59:35.155Z and at or before 2028-11-09T05:00:00.000Z, no such declaration has been made for JD Vance — meaning another candidate has been declared the winner, or no winner has been declared by the major news outlets by that time. Clarifications: - "Declared the winner" means a consensus call by major US national news organizations (e.g., AP, NBC, CNN, Fox News) that JD Vance has won sufficient Electoral College votes to be elected President of the United States. A formal Electoral College certification is not required by the settlement time; the consensus news call is sufficient.
Nov 7, 2028, 5:00 AM UTC