“Will IBGE's first release of Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP on Dec 2, 2026 show seasonally adjusted growth of at least 0.3% vs Q2 2026?” on Delphi

Will IBGE's first release of Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP on Dec 2, 2026 show seasonally adjusted growth of at least 0.3% vs Q2 2026?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥0.3% growthyour pick17.5%$0.18
No, below 0.3% growth82.5%$0.83

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Market pricing reflects consensus forecasts of -0.2% to -0.1% growth, with real-money traders assigning 94% combined probability to outcomes below 0.3%; the worldgdp.org nowcast at +0.2% and recent industrial production weakness further reduce the already-slim odds of clearing the 0.3% threshold by December 2.