Will Raphinha receive a yellow card vs Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 (regular + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes22.3%$0.22
- No77.8%$0.78
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Forecast reasoning
Raphinha starts for Barcelona in El Clásico on October 25 after recovering from a thigh injury, but limited recent playing time and cautious management following his return suggest he may not be fully match-sharp, keeping yellow card risk moderate at 22%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Raphinha receives at least one yellow card during regular time or stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalty shootout) of the LaLiga match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, played strictly after 2026-10-24T20:47:27.727Z and with the match result confirmed at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Raphinha receives no yellow card during regular time or stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalty shootout) of that same match, or if Raphinha does not appear in the match at all (not in the starting lineup and not as a substitute), provided the match result is confirmed at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The match in question is FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid in LaLiga on October 25, 2026 (kick-off 20:00 UTC) at Spotify Camp Nou. Only yellow cards issued during the 90 minutes of regular time plus any added stoppage time at the end of each half count; cards shown after the final whistle or during extra time or a penalty shootout do not count.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC