Will Iran elect a new president by March 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes4.6%$0.05
- No95.4%$0.95
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Iran's next presidential election is constitutionally scheduled for 2028 under Masoud Pezeshkian's four-year term that began in 2024. An early election would require the president's death or resignation; as of October 2026, neither has occurred and no plans for an earlier election have been announced. Similar prediction markets estimate 3-8% probability of an early election by end-2026, suggesting the 5% reflects the small but non-zero risk of unexpected political upheaval in the 169 days rem...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a presidential election is held in Iran and a winner is officially declared by Iran's Ministry of Interior strictly after 2026-10-01T03:01:12.100Z and at or before 2027-04-01T07:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no presidential election winner is officially declared by Iran's Ministry of Interior strictly after 2026-10-01T03:01:12.100Z and at or before 2027-04-01T07:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Elect a new president" means the completion of a presidential election cycle (including any required runoff) and the official announcement of a winner by Iran's Ministry of Interior within the resolution window; inauguration or parliamentary endorsement is not required.
Apr 1, 2027, 7:00 AM UTC