Will AI-assisted math progress break elliptic curve cryptography by the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.1%$0.00
- No99.9%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Despite significant theoretical advances in quantum algorithms and AI-assisted optimization of elliptic curve attacks through mid-2026, no verified evidence shows AI has discovered a classical algorithm or practical attack breaking ECDSA by the October 17 cutoff. Experts including Coinbase's head of cryptography stated there is no evidence of ECDSA failure, and the largest quantum ECC break achieved was only 15-bit keys, far below cryptographic standards.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-08T16:08:12.153Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, a publicly verifiable, peer-reviewed or formally verified mathematical result is published demonstrating a practical break of elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) — specifically, a polynomial-time or otherwise practically feasible classical or AI-assisted algorithm that solves the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) for cryptographically relevant key sizes (e.g., 256-bit curves such as secp256k1 or NIST P-256) — and this result is independently confirmed or formally accepted by at least one recognized cryptographic standards body (e.g., NIST) or major peer-reviewed cryptography venue (e.g., CRYPTO, Eurocrypt, IACR ePrint with broad expert acknowledgment). - "No": Wins if no such result meeting the above criteria is published and confirmed within the window. Clarifications: - "Breaking" ECC means a demonstrated, practically feasible algorithm — not a theoretical reduction, a marginal resource improvement, a quantum-hardware advance, or a warning/conjecture about future risk. Warnings, blog posts, informal claims, or speculative timelines from researchers do not qualify. - The window for qualifying events is strictly after 2026-10-08T16:08:12.153Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC