Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on Dec 31, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick17.5%$0.18
- No82.5%$0.83
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Forecast reasoning
Bitcoin closed 2026 at $81,385, well below the $100,000 threshold, with year-end forecasts ranging from $76,844 to $92,500. Related prediction markets show only 23% probability for Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by year-end 2026, and the asset has declined 27.6% over the past year despite early-2026 strength near $95,000.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BTC-USD price on Coinbase is strictly above $100,000 at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T20:51:47.369Z and at or before 2027-01-01T04:59:59.000Z. - "No": Wins if the BTC-USD price on Coinbase does not exceed $100,000 at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T20:51:47.369Z and at or before 2027-01-01T04:59:59.000Z. Clarifications: - "Close above $100,000 on Dec 31, 2026" is interpreted as the BTC-USD spot price reaching or exceeding $100,000.01 (i.e., strictly greater than $100,000) at any moment within the settlement window. The daily close on Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) is a qualifying moment within the window; any such qualifying price reading within the window satisfies the condition. - The settlement window opens strictly after 2026-09-29T20:51:47.369Z and closes at 2027-01-01T04:59:59.000Z UTC.
Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC