“Will PSOE win at least 110 Congress of Deputies seats in the 29 Nov 2026 Spanish general election, per Interior Ministry official results?” on Delphi

Will PSOE win at least 110 Congress of Deputies seats in the 29 Nov 2026 Spanish general election, per Interior Ministry official results?

PoliticsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yesyour pick60.8%$0.61
No39.3%$0.39

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Official results show PSOE won 120 seats, exceeding the 110-seat threshold, but most pre-election polls projected 104-112 seats, falling short. The CIS survey was an outlier at 134-143 seats, while other forecasters like ElectoralLab and DYM clustered around 104-108 seats.