Will the UK Autumn Budget 2026 include an increase to Capital Gains Tax (CGT)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes26.8%$0.27
- No73.3%$0.73
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Chancellor Healey rejected full CGT-income tax equalisation on October 13, but the Treasury could still pursue a smaller increase. Wealthy investors are rushing asset sales ahead of the October 28 Budget, suggesting market expectations of some CGT change. No official increase has been confirmed as of October 19.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the official UK Autumn Budget 2026 document published by HM Treasury on GOV.UK on 28 October 2026 explicitly announces an increase to Capital Gains Tax rates, thresholds, or scope, where that announcement was not already public policy before 2026-10-19T18:46:36.920Z. - "No": Wins if the official UK Autumn Budget 2026 document published by HM Treasury on GOV.UK on 28 October 2026 contains no such CGT increase announcement. Clarifications: - "Increase to Capital Gains Tax" means any upward change to CGT rates, a reduction in CGT annual exempt amounts, an extension of CGT to previously exempt asset classes, or any other measure that increases the effective CGT burden on taxpayers, as stated in the Budget document or accompanying HM Treasury tax-measure notes.
Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC