Will Slipknot drop Marilyn Manson from their (sic)est Stadium Tour?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes7.2%$0.07
- No92.8%$0.93
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Marilyn Manson is confirmed as support for Slipknot's London Wembley show (July 3, 2027) and South American dates, with no official announcements of removal as of late September 2026. The 7% probability reflects the 264-day window until market close allowing time for potential lineup changes, despite current confirmations across all major tour listings.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Slipknot officially announce, via their official website or social media channels, the removal of Marilyn Manson from all scheduled dates of the (sic)est Stadium Tour strictly after 2026-09-30T18:24:21.575Z and at or before 2027-07-02T23:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such official removal announcement is made during the window — i.e., Marilyn Manson remains listed as a scheduled performer on the (sic)est Stadium Tour at 2027-07-02T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Dropped" means Manson is officially removed from all of his scheduled tour appearances (London/Wembley and South American dates) by Slipknot, their management, or the tour promoter (Live Nation). A removal from only a subset of dates does not satisfy "Yes"; partial removal counts as "No". - If Manson voluntarily withdraws rather than being dropped by Slipknot/promoter, that does not count as Slipknot dropping him; "No" wins in that scenario. - The window runs strictly after 2026-09-30T18:24:21.575Z and at or before 2027-07-02T23:00:00.000Z.
Jul 2, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC