“Will NASA land astronauts on the Moon before Jan 1, 2030?” on Delphi

Will NASA land astronauts on the Moon before Jan 1, 2030?

TechForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yesyour pick27.0%$0.27
No73.0%$0.73

Forecast only. Not tradable.

This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.

Forecast reasoning

NASA and commercial partners announced October 2026 plans to land astronauts on the Moon in early 2028, with Artemis IV targeted before the January 1, 2030 deadline. However, the 27% probability reflects that no landing date is locked, the lander provider remains unselected, and a 2027 precursor mission is currently behind schedule.