Will there be more individual wildfires in California in 2026 than in 2025?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.8%$0.02
- No98.3%$0.98
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
As of October 16, 2026, California had 6,149 wildfires year-to-date compared to 7,439 for the same period in 2025, a decrease of 1,290 fires. With 74 days remaining in 2026, the deficit would need to reverse dramatically in the final 2.5 months to exceed 2025's total of 8,036 fires.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total number of individual wildfires recorded in California strictly after 2025-12-31T15:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z exceeds the total number of individual wildfires recorded in California strictly after 2024-12-31T15:00:00Z and at or before 2025-12-31T15:00:00Z, according to the CAL FIRE annual incident statistics. - "No": Wins if the total number of individual wildfires recorded in California strictly after 2025-12-31T15:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z is less than or equal to the total number of individual wildfires recorded in California strictly after 2024-12-31T15:00:00Z and at or before 2025-12-31T15:00:00Z, according to the CAL FIRE annual incident statistics. Clarifications: - "Individual wildfires" refers to the total count of distinct wildfire incidents for the full calendar year, as reported in CAL FIRE's official annual incident archive or year-end wildfire statistics summary. The 2025 count covers the 2025 fire year (2025-01-01 through 2025-12-31 UTC) and the 2026 count covers the 2026 fire year (2026-01-01 through 2026-12-31 UTC); the windowStart and closeTime bounds define the settlement window used to confirm that final figures are available, not to filter which fires count.
Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC