Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick21.5%$0.22
- No78.5%$0.79
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
The estimate rests on 10 recent sources, weighed against the base rate for events of this kind inside the market's window.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — either by securing a majority of valid votes in the first round (4 October 2026) or by winning the runoff (25 October 2026) — with the result confirmed by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) strictly after 2026-10-02T09:08:24.232Z and at or before 2026-10-26T03:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the TSE confirms, within the same window, that a candidate other than Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (first round or runoff). Clarifications: - "Winner" means the candidate declared elected president by the TSE — either by obtaining more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, or by obtaining more valid votes than the opposing candidate in the runoff on 25 October 2026. - If the TSE has not officially declared a winner by 2026-10-26T03:00:00.000Z (e.g., results are delayed or disputed and no declaration has been made), neither condition above is met within the window.
Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC