Will Bitcoin end November 2026 higher than it started?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick51.5%$0.52
- No48.5%$0.49
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Forecast reasoning
Bitcoin opened October 2026 at $83,567 and closed at $81,385, down 2.6% for the month, while November forecasts range from $75,813 to $87,000 depending on the model. Historical November data shows a 7.12% median gain since 2013, but with high volatility including a -36.57% decline in 2018. The slight edge to "Yes" reflects modest bullish forecasts offset by recent downward momentum and uncertainty over the 44-day trading window.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the closing reference price is strictly higher than the opening reference price. - "No": Wins if the closing reference price is equal to or lower than the opening reference price. Clarifications: - The opening reference price is the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase recorded as close as possible to, but no earlier than, 2026-11-01T07:00:00Z. - The closing reference price is the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase recorded as close as possible to, but no later than, 2026-12-01T08:00:00Z. - Both prices must fall strictly within the window (at or after 2026-11-01T07:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-01T08:00:00Z).
Dec 1, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC