Will UK fuel prices decrease in November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick44.3%$0.44
- No55.8%$0.56
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Forecast reasoning
UK fuel prices rose 4.9p for petrol and 7.0p for diesel in September-October 2026, with projections showing continued increases to 186p petrol and 217p diesel in November if trends persist. A 44% "Yes" reflects that sharp reversals are possible—diesel fell 17p in June when peace hopes rose—but current momentum and geopolitical tensions favour continued increases over the next 47 days.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the DESNZ weekly road fuel prices average UK retail pump price for unleaded petrol (ULSP, pence per litre) recorded for the final weekly reading dated on or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00Z is strictly lower than the first weekly reading dated strictly after 2026-11-01T00:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the final weekly reading is equal to or higher than the first weekly reading within the same window. Clarifications: - The comparison window covers weekly DESNZ readings dated strictly after 2026-11-01T00:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00Z; the "first reading" is the earliest such weekly data point and the "final reading" is the latest such weekly data point published within that window. - "UK fuel prices" is taken to mean the average UK retail pump price for unleaded petrol (ULSP) in pence per litre as published in the DESNZ weekly road fuel prices statistical dataset.
Dec 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC