Will Dan Sullivan (R) win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick33.3%$0.33
- No66.7%$0.67
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Forecast reasoning
A October 11 forecast gave Sullivan 98.3% win probability, but prediction markets as of mid-October show him at just 33-42%, suggesting late-breaking shifts toward Democrat Mary Peltola despite Sullivan's incumbent status and historical Republican strength in Alaska.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Dan S. Sullivan (Republican incumbent) is declared the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election by the official certified results or a major news wire race call, strictly after 2026-10-02T14:15:45.235Z and at or before the market's settlement time. - "No": Wins if Dan S. Sullivan (Republican incumbent) is not declared the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election — i.e., another candidate is declared the winner — by the official certified results or a major news wire race call, strictly after 2026-10-02T14:15:45.235Z and at or before the market's settlement time. Clarifications: - Because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, the winner is the candidate who prevails after all ranked-choice tabulation rounds are complete, as certified by the Alaska Division of Elections or called by the Associated Press. - "Dan S. Sullivan" refers specifically to the Republican incumbent U.S. Senator (Dan Sullivan, born 1964), not to any other candidate sharing a similar name (e.g., Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.) on the 2026 ballot.
Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC