Will Manchester City be deducted more than 10 points before Jan 1, 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick10.3%$0.10
- No89.8%$0.90
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Forecast reasoning
Manchester City was found guilty of 114 financial breaches on October 16, 2026, with experts predicting "multiple double figures" points if sanctions are imposed, but the appeal process may not conclude until late January 2027—after the December 31 deadline. No sanction has been officially decided as of October 17, 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Manchester City FC are officially issued a Premier League points deduction totalling more than 10 points, as formally announced by the Premier League or its independent commission/appeal panel, strictly after 2026-10-08T14:56:50.919Z and at or before 2026-12-31T23:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such official points deduction announcement of more than 10 points is made within the same window. Clarifications: - The deduction must be the officially confirmed sanction (or confirmed appeal ruling) as announced by the Premier League or its appointed independent commission. A deduction that is announced but then stayed or reversed to 10 points or fewer before the window closes does not qualify for "Yes". If an initial deduction exceeding 10 points is announced and later reduced to 10 points or fewer by an appeal ruling within the window, the reduced figure applies. - Only deductions arising from the Premier League's financial-rule proceedings (the "115 charges" case announced on 6 February 2023) count toward this total.
Dec 31, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC