Will PSOE win the Spanish general election on Nov 29, 2026?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes1.6%$0.02
- No98.5%$0.98
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Most polls show PP leading PSOE by 3-5 percentage points with 16 days until the election, with PP projected to win 135-139 seats versus PSOE's 103-108 seats. One outlier poll from SW Demoscopia shows PSOE ahead, but multiple aggregators and Monte Carlo simulations give PP a 95% chance of finishing first. PSOE would need a significant late swing to win the most seats.