Will AI cause an extinction event of the human race by 2035?
TechForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.1%$0.00
- No99.9%$1.00
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Expert surveys from 2026 show median extinction risk estimates of 10-25% by 2100, with AI safety leaders assigning 25% median probability of human extinction before 2100, but no credible evidence supports extinction specifically by January 2036—a 9-year window requiring near-immediate catastrophic AI deployment.