Will Taiwan be officially reunified with mainland China by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes0.0%$0.00
- No100.0%$1.00
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Despite Xi Jinping's November 12 reaffirmation of reunification as China's "historical mission," Taiwan's government firmly rejected the proposal, 92% of Taiwanese oppose unification under Beijing's terms, and no credible path to official reunification exists within the 49 days remaining before the December 31, 2026 deadline.