Will US inflation cool in October 2026 (reported Nov 10, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick25.5%$0.26
- No74.5%$0.75
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
September's 3.7% year-over-year inflation exceeded expectations and rose from August's 3.4%, driven by energy prices spiking 5.2% for the month. The Cleveland Fed's October 16 nowcast estimates October inflation at 3.77%, suggesting further acceleration rather than cooling. An August forecast predicted October at 2.94%, but recent momentum and elevated consumer expectations make that outcome unlikely.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI news release published on November 10, 2026 (reference month: October 2026) reports a 12-month all-items CPI percent change that is strictly lower than the 12-month all-items CPI percent change reported in the BLS CPI news release for September 2026, where both figures are taken from their respective initial BLS news releases. - "No": Wins if the 12-month all-items CPI percent change reported in the November 10, 2026 BLS CPI news release (reference month: October 2026) is equal to or higher than the 12-month all-items CPI percent change reported in the BLS CPI news release for September 2026. Clarifications: - "Cooling" is defined solely as a reduction in the 12-month (year-over-year) percent change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) between the September 2026 and October 2026 initial BLS releases. - If the November 10, 2026 BLS CPI release is delayed beyond 2026-11-10T21:30:00Z or does not report a 12-month all-items figure for October 2026, neither outcome is determined by this criterion.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC