Current England heating oil prices near 114-115p ex-VAT (26 October) would need to rise above 120p by end of November, a 5-7p jump in 35 days. Prices peaked at 123p in April 2026 during the US/Iran conflict but have since eased; historical data shows 99.3p in June 2022 as the previous record. The 12% probability reflects low near-term momentum and that prices have never sustainably exceeded 120p despite recent volatility.