Will England heating oil price exceed 120 pence per litre by end of November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick18.5%$0.19
- No81.5%$0.82
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Forecast reasoning
Heating oil prices in England currently trade near 119p/L as of late October 2026, just below the 120p threshold, with recent volatility showing peaks at 124p in September and 123p in April but no sustained breach above 120p through the available data. The 38-day window to end-November provides limited time for the additional 1p rise needed, and historical patterns show prices have pulled back from peaks rather than sustained higher levels.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the ONS mid-month typical retail price of heating oil in England (ONS series D7DW / DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices Table 4.1.1) exceeds 120 pence per litre for any mid-month observation strictly after 2026-10-23T15:50:55.821Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such mid-month observation exceeds 120 pence per litre within that same window. Clarifications: - The relevant price is the ONS/DESNZ mid-month typical retail price of burning/heating oil for England, reported in pence per litre, as published in the DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices statistical release (Table 4.1.1) or the ONS dataset series D7DW/D7DV. If the November 2026 mid-month figure has not been published by 2026-12-01T08:00:00.000Z, the most recent available mid-month figure published within the window is used; if no new figure is published within the window, the market is unresolvable.
Dec 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC