Will the U.S. go to war with Iran by Nov 12, 2028?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick30.5%$0.31
- No69.5%$0.70
Forecast only. Not tradable.
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
A U.S.-Iran war already began February 28, 2026, with a ceasefire signed June 17, 2026, but sporadic strikes resumed in November 2026 with core disputes unresolved. The 31% probability reflects uncertainty whether renewed escalation over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz will constitute formal war by November 2028, given Trump faces political pressure to avoid "forever wars" before the election.