Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 by Christmas 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick13.8%$0.14
- No86.3%$0.86
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Forecast reasoning
Bitcoin needs a 22% gain in 68 days to reach $100,000 by Christmas 2026, but most forecasts project year-end prices between $76,800 and $98,000, with a December Fed rate hike (76-79% probability) creating headwinds for a rally. Prediction market odds have fallen sharply to 9.7-20% as macroeconomic conditions tighten.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase trades strictly above $100,000 USD at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T22:05:20.621Z and at or before 2026-12-25T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase does not trade strictly above $100,000 USD at any point strictly after 2026-09-29T22:05:20.621Z and at or before 2026-12-25T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Exceeds $100,000" means a live traded price strictly greater than $100,000.00 USD (i.e., $100,000.01 or higher); a price of exactly $100,000.00 does not satisfy the condition.
Dec 25, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC