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Will the DA win a majority in the Johannesburg municipal elections on Nov 4, 2026?

PoliticsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yes0.1%$0.00
  • No99.9%$1.00
Forecast only. Not tradable.

The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.

Forecast reasoning

All recent polls show the DA leading Johannesburg at 35-36%, well short of the 50% majority required to govern alone. The eNCA survey, SRF poll, and Ipsos data all conducted within weeks of the November 4 election consistently place the DA below the threshold, with the fragmented opposition preventing any single party from winning outright.