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Will the ECB cut rates at its December 2026 meeting (Dec 16–17)?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yesyour pick0.9%$0.01
  • No99.1%$0.99
Forecast only. Not tradable.

The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.

Forecast reasoning

Markets price a 95% probability of a December rate hike to 2.75%, with only a 1% chance of a cut, as inflation at 4.0% is double the ECB's 2% target and Bundesbank leadership has flagged a "strong case" for tightening. A rate cut would require a dramatic reversal from current consensus among economists and policymakers over the next 34 days.