Will Tesla stock outperform Nvidia stock by Dec 31, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Tesla outperforms Nvidiayour pick46.8%$0.47
- Nvidia outperforms or matches Tesla53.3%$0.53
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Forecast reasoning
Tesla is down 21-22% year-to-date while Nvidia is up roughly 15% year-to-date, requiring Tesla to significantly outpace Nvidia over the next 75 days to achieve outperformance by year-end. Tesla trades 23% below its 52-week high versus Nvidia's 11% discount, suggesting Tesla faces steeper recovery headwinds. The 47% probability reflects Tesla's need to reverse substantial underperformance in a compressed timeframe.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Tesla outperforms Nvidia": Wins if the percentage change in TSLA's Nasdaq official closing price is strictly greater than the percentage change in NVDA's Nasdaq official closing price, where both percentage changes are calculated from each stock's respective closing price at or immediately before 2026-10-02T15:11:09.353Z to each stock's respective official closing price on the last Nasdaq trading day at or before 2026-12-31T22:00:00.000Z. - "Nvidia outperforms or matches Tesla": Wins if the percentage change in NVDA's Nasdaq official closing price is greater than or equal to the percentage change in TSLA's Nasdaq official closing price over the same interval. Clarifications: - The measurement window runs strictly after 2026-10-02T15:11:09.353Z and at or before 2026-12-31T22:00:00.000Z; the baseline price for each stock is its official Nasdaq closing price on the last full trading day at or immediately before the window open, and the final price is its official Nasdaq closing price on the last full trading day at or before the window close. - Percentage change for each stock is calculated as: (final closing price − baseline closing price) / baseline closing price × 100. - If the last Nasdaq trading day at or before 2026-12-31T22:00:00.000Z falls on December 31, 2026, that day's closing price is used; if markets are closed on that date, the most recent prior trading day's closing price is used.
Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC