Will it snow on Christmas Day (Dec 25, 2026) in New York City?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes7.5%$0.08
- Noyour pick92.5%$0.93
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Forecast reasoning
Historical data shows snow on Christmas Day in NYC only 7-9% of years since 1950, with most recent forecasts predicting rain rather than snow on Dec 25, 2026. A validated NOAA model estimates 8% probability of at least one inch on the ground that morning. El Niño conditions expected this winter typically suppress Northeast snowfall.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if any snowfall (trace or greater) is recorded at the KNYC (New York City, Central Park) observation station strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if no snowfall is recorded at the KNYC (New York City, Central Park) observation station during that same interval. Clarifications: - The qualifying interval is strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z (corresponding to Christmas Day local time in New York City). Any snowfall amount, including a trace, recorded in official NWS hourly or daily climate observations for KNYC within this window counts as snow.
Dec 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC